The Last Battleground In Iraq
Monday, April 21, 2008 at 09:00PM “After this unrest, there will be permanent stability.” - Iraqi cleric and lawmaker
With the success of the Sunni Awakening Councils in Anbar Province a firmly embedded page in the history of Iraq as a major turning point for the country’s stability, the security of the country now depends upon the Shiites. The struggle between Moqtada al-Sadr’s rouge militias backed by Iran and Shiite clerics who support the government’s crackdown on the militias is underway, and it might be the last major internal struggle that leads to the kind of security which will enable greater numbers of U.S. troops to redeploy from Iraq without being replaced.
Some think of it as a Shiite Awakening.
An influential cleric and lawmaker in Iraq had this to say: ”There will be disorder. After this unrest, there will be permanent stability.”
Now Shiite clerics are opposing Moqtada al-Sadr and his decision to wage an all out war on U.S. and Iraqi troops if they don’t stop operations against his fighters. According to the Los Angeles Times:
Three days into the Basra campaign, Grand Ayatollah Najafi issued a fatwa, or religious opinion or edict, that declared the Iraqi government as the only force in the country with the right to bear arms.
His son, Sheik Ali Najafi, left little doubt that the clergy had backed the Iraqi army operations.
“The situation is mysterious,” said Sheik Ali Najafi, the son and confidant of Grand Ayatollah Bashir Hussain Najafi, one of the four senior most Shiite clerics in Iraq, who guide the country’s majority faith and counsel its politicians. Like elder statesmen, the four have found themselves ensnared in the conflict between the Shiite-led Iraqi government and an upstart young cleric, son of a revered grand ayatollah: Muqtada Sadr.
Najaf may hold the key to Iraq’s stability; if it descends into violence, the entire Shiite south will almost certainly follow suit. U.S. forces will be stretched, the chances of a troop drawdown diminished. The Shiite parties involved will probably look to Iran to broker an end to the crisis. And chances for real political process will be on hold.
On Saturday night, the fears of a broader Shiite conflict loomed larger after Sadr threatened all-out war against the government if it did not halt military operations against his followers in Baghdad and the southern port of Basra.
Like Basra, with its oil, whoever controls Najaf will play a major role in charting Iraq’s future. It is here Shiite politicians come for guidance from the grand ayatollahs. It is here the populist Sadr first challenged Iraq’s conservative religious establishment.
“Najaf is the kitchen, where major decisions are cooked,” said Salah Obeidi, Sadr’s official spokesman.
Every year, millions of pilgrims come to Najaf to pray at the Imam Ali Mosque, the tomb of the prophet Muhammad’s son-in-law. It was over the question of Ali’s succession that the Shiite sect emerged. Believers from across Iraq bury their dead in Najaf’s cemetery, named the Valley of Peace. Aspiring clerics flock here to study at the revered hawza, a loose network of illustrious seminaries, rivaled only by Qom in Iran.
“Muqtada would covet the kind of Shiites Najaf holds,” said Vali Nasr, an expert on Shiite Islam at Tufts University. “Sadr is popular politically, the grand ayatollahs religiously. There is a tense standoff between them. They both hold power and popularity, and that is what makes the situation so tense and volatile.”
This time, the grand ayatollahs have declined to aid the incendiary cleric.
Their stance is a gamble. An influential cleric who is knowledgeable about talks between the Sadr movement and the grand ayatollahs described the situation in bleak terms: The government is weak, and Sadr aides now acknowledge privately that they have lost control of members who are receiving support from Iran.
“There are groups in the Mahdi Army who are kidnapping, killing and stealing. They don’t listen to Muqtada. They are openly operating with Iranian interests,” he said.
The cleric asked that his name not be used because he feared assassination. Everywhere, he saw Iran’s influence. “In the beginning, it was Arab countries playing a negative role. Now after Qaeda has fallen, it is Iran. Iran wants to control Iraq, and change the hawza from Najaf to Qom.”
The 6-foot-tall lawmaker also has to worry about Mahdi Army fighters co-opted by Tehran. “Iran interferes in everything,” he said. “It was able to control a handful of fighters to use them to serve their interests.”
“The quiet will not continue. There will be disorder,” he said confidentially between visits from customers who flipped through his books, with their pictures of the dour-faced clerics. He was sure the turbulence would pass: “After this unrest, there will be permanent stability.”
Did you notice the common denominator at play in this story? Religion. The U.S. military cannot afford to have a “we don’t do religion” attitude but must adapt religious leader engagement as part of their overall counterinsurgency and security strategy. It is catching on thanks to GEN Petraeus and commanders who recognize the importance clerics, sheiks and imams have in this part of the world but the “separation of church and state” attitude we westerners hold to has the potential to kill us in this war.
With Shiites fracturing between stability and violence, the U.S. has an opportunity to do what we did in Anbar: that is, listen to and engage the religious leaders who support the government of Iraq and our ultimate goal; peace in Iraq. We can do that by first listening to the clerics, assuring them we are in it for the long haul, ascertaining their needs and meeting them. Helping good Iraqis help themselves is the key to good counterinsurgency, and religion plays the biggest part in this strategy.
Al-Qaeda tries to influence Iraqis (and others in the Middle East) against the U.S. by telling them that we are godless secularists. If we prove them right, we lose the war.
The bottom line in Iraq is: Religion Matters.
PREVIOUSLY:
The Message that Helped Win Anbar Province: We’ll Stay As Long as it Takes
Commitment Motivates Iraqis, Not Threats of Withdrawal
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Reader Comments (19)
AMY,
This strategy clearly is producing success in unifying the Iraqi government,bringing stability to the region, and neutering al -Sadr.
Does this vindicate you and your husband's view that killing al-Sadr would have been a mistake since it appears we are defeating him without turning him into a martyr?
or
If he is neutralized enough,should he be taken out with an Iraqi "stamp" on it so that he is not a threat in the future.
OUR MILITARY IS SUCCEEDING ON THE GROUND:
Petraeus' Anaconda Strategy
By Austin Bay
April 9,2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/petraeus_anaconda_strategy.html
It's a shame Sen. Carl Levin failed to take the time to call public attention to Gen. David Petraeus' "Anaconda Strategy" chart. Petraeus briefly referred to the chart during his initial testimony this week before Levin's Senate Armed Services Committee.
The Anaconda Chart is a complex graphic that depicts an intricate, multi-dimensional war. It's tough to describe even with a copy in front of you. However, the strategic concept behind Petraeus' chart (titled "Anaconda Strategy versus al-Qaida in Iraq") is dirt simple: Squeeze and keep squeezing.
Iraqis forces seize Mahdi stronghold in Basra
posted at 10:30 am on April 19, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/04/19/iraqis-forces-seize-mahdi-stronghold-in-basra/
Despite the news media’s apparent insistence on clinging to their narrative of defeat and disaster in Basra, Nouri al-Maliki’s operation to restore control of the city to the elected government achieved its major goal today with the fall of the Mahdi militia’s stronghold in the city.
THIS IS UNITING THE GOVERNMENT TO ENFORCE THE RULE OF LAW:
Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish Parties Close Ranks Against Al-Sadr's Movement in Iraq
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ_ISOLATING_THE_SADRISTS?SITE=NVREN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA
Associated Press Writers
BAGHDAD (AP) -- Iraq's major Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties have closed ranks to force anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to disband his Mahdi Army militia or leave politics, lawmakers and officials involved in the effort said Sunday.
Such a bold move risks a violent backlash by al-Sadr's Shiite militia. But if it succeeds it could cause a major realignment of Iraq's political landscape.
WHEN THE AYATOLLAH'S CALL YOU OUT,YOU ARE DONE:
The Long War Journal: Ayatollah Sistani on the Mahdi Army: “the law is the only authority in the country”
Written by Bill Roggio on April 9, 2008 9:55 PM to The Long War Journal
Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/04/ayatollah_sistani_on.php
Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.
With the Iraqi government applying pressure to the Sadrist movement and Muqtada al Sadr to disband the Mahdi Army, Iraq’s senior Shia cleric has weighed in on the issue. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most revered Shia cleric in Iraq, backed the government’s position that the Mahdi Army should surrender its weapons and said he never consulted with Sadr on disbanding the Mahdi Army. Instead, the decision to disband the Mahdi Army is Sadr’s to make.
"Sistani has a clear opinion in this regard; the law is the only authority in the country," Saghier told Voices of Iraq, indicating Sistani supports Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki and the government in the effort to sideline the Mahdi Army.
Fear and Loathing at the Los Angeles Times (as stated above in the original post)
http://proteinwisdom.com/?p=11907
With the Iraqi Army defeating Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra, the L.A. Times has moved on to tell its readers how terrible things might get in Najaf. Buried in the middle of the piece, however, is a bit about the battle for Basra:
This time, the grand ayatollahs have declined to aid the incendiary cleric.
Three days into the Basra campaign, Grand Ayatollah Najafi issued a fatwa, or religious opinion or edict, that declared the Iraqi government as the only force in the country with the right to bear arms.
BUT WE WON'T SEE THIS ON THE FRONT PAGE,THEY ARE TO BUSY COVERING McCAIN'S TEMPER.
Great quotes/sources, BG. Good post, Amy. Najaf has become the boiling pot in OIF. Amy is absolutely correct - success in OIF is dependent on our dealings with the powerful clerics. The clerics connect Iraq to Iran; they are the major force to be reckoned with. The more orthodox Shiites are willing to obey Grand Ayatollah Sistani's fatwas. That is tremendous news for the government of Iraq and could be the final nail in the coffin against the insurgency and the proxy war with Iran.
As one who has served in Iraq, I want to emphasize the point Amy made in her post: perceptions of Coalition Forces as godless secularists play into the hands of the religious extremists like AQ and the JaM special groups. When we appear favorably disposed to the traditional practices of Islam, we make good progress and the clerics tolerate us, some even support us. But the Friday sermon is still the most credible source of information in Iraq and any actions that alienate the clerics will retard our progress and embolden AQ and Iran.
Thank you for your service Johnny,we would not have the Freedom's we enjoy without our men and women in
uniform.
Reading Petraeus/Amos/Nagl book on Counterinsurgency,you can tell how important it is to protect the population and respect their heritage and religion.Their is no political reconciliation or decrease in violence
if the population feels like they will have to live under the boot of imperialism.
The Iraqi people have voted several times,have established a central government and are training their army and police force to provide security so that the seeds of "their"democracy can grow.
The American Soldier has brought Freedom to the people of Iraq,not Imperialism.
Amen, Baxter Greene!
Baxter, excellent links. It's funny but during the Basra upheaval there was a heck of a lot of coverage of Iraq. Now there's virtually none. Basra is settled and life back to normal and the Mahdi Army dealt quite a blow. I doubt the media elite who oppose the war aren't interested in reporting that. I also don't think Democrats can accurately describe what is going on in Iraq and on what basis their plans for withdrawal, which are logistically impossible (in terms of 2 brigades a month), can be justified in light of facts on the ground. The Democratic canidates haven't grown past the "Bush's war" mantra. Neither deserve to be commander in chief with their incredibly kindergartenish understanding of the implications in Iraq and the broader war on terror.
I take it this means we can bring our boys home - alive.
Sorry - boys and girls.
"The Democratic canidates haven't grown past the "Bush's war" mantra. "
You are right Amy.
The Democrats have done such a terrible job with their majority that they achieved in 06 because they have no
logical plans or solutions.
"I hate Bush" is not a plan.
The Dems 17% congressional rating shows this.
How's that impeachment going Dems???
And so far they have attacked McCain on his :
-Age
-Temper
-The fact his wife is successful and wealthy(was not a problem for Teresa Heinz Kerry though)
If this is the best the Dems can do against McCain, they are in serious trouble this election.
The Dems can live in denial about the progress in Iraq,but that does not mean the rest of America does not
see it.
The fact that all the "war is lost" crowd could come up with after Petraeus gave his testimony on Iraq was
"He has to many medals" or "why did we lose in Basra"(which we knew and have proven to not be the case)
shows just how pathetic the cut and run crowd has become.
As has been the case throughout history,when all seemed lost and the going got tough,the American
Soldier has ALWAYS come through for this country and the world.
The American Soldier and the Iraqis will defeat al-qaeda and gain their Freedom.
The American Soldier and the Iraqis will defeat the militia's and gain their Freedom.
The American Soldier and the Iraqis accomplishing this exposes the "genocide is okay with us"cut and run
crowd for the idiots that they are.
The facts on the ground show this to be true.
This Soldiers wife brings this issue to life like only a Soldiers loved one can (As I am sure Amy can relate to).
She wants the war to be over just like the rest of us,but she knows how important this mission is and what is at stake.There is no cut and run in her,no surrender.
I think she shows strength and courage that only a Soldier and his family can know.
We are so lucky to have her and the rest of our Soldiers families protecting our Nation.
ANTI-WAR WOUNDS
By Katie Dyer
For The Register-Guard
Published: April 20, 2008 12:00AM
http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?
"I want this war to be over more than anything I’ve ever wanted in my life, but that’s not why I cry. I cry because I am so relieved that Paul isn’t home to see this.
My husband fights this war. He risks his life every day. We have both made sacrifices for it. And to hear them say that it’s “a waste of time,” that it “will never make a difference,” that “we should call the whole thing off” — well, if that’s true, I’m not sure I’ll get out of bed tomorrow morning. There has to be a reason that our family — and thousands of others — are enduring this.
Paul believes that he is making a difference in this world. I have to believe that, too. As an Oregon National Guard wife, there is an unspoken code that assumes you won’t participate in anti-war sentiment, but that’s not what stops me from joining them. As I watch, I feel anger, not kinship."
Reading her testament leaves me knowing this to be true:
HOME OF THE FREE
BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE
Our Soldiers on the front lines support this mission,the least we can do is support it to.
Wow, I like you Baxter Green!
We were lied into this war. And now it's the quagmire that was predicted - hardly a cakewalk. What are you going to do when you've made an investment of so much blood and treasure...admit it was all for nothing, and based on a lie?
Human nature.
"We were lied into this war."
As usual, mud throws out left wing talking points that she cannot back up.
The 9/11 commission that was signed off by Republicans and Democrats states that Bush did not lie or manipulate intelligence.
The 2003 senate intelligence report signed off by Republicans and Democrats stated that Bush did not lie
or manipulate intelligence.
The Butler Report done by the British and agreed upon by Republicans and Democrats states that Bush did
not lie or manipulate intelligence.
It's getting old listening to liberals whine on about "Bush lied" when they spent the 90's saying the same things
about Iraq that Bush did.Democrats saw the same intelligence that Bush saw and voted for this war.
The fact that they choose to chase poll numbers and stab this country in the back for senate seats and the
pursuit of the White House does not make Bush a liar,it shows just how corrupt liberals are.
Democrats have control of the House and the Senate,if Bush is such the lying war criminal that liberals say he
is,then impeach.
It was the Democrats that shot down Kucinich's impeachment bill,not the Republicans.
Republicans want this debate,we would love to remind the nation how much Democrats yelled and screamed for years about Saddam's WMD/Nuclear programs and his ties to al-qaeda.
What about it mud, your liberal heroes have the power to prove your talking points,
PUT UP OR SHUT UP!!
"And now it's the quagmire that was predicted "
The facts on the ground put forth by General Petraeus,our Military,the Iraqis,Brookings,Washington Post,Nytimes,Democrats and Republican leaders, all show this statement to be false and idiotic.
The liberal predictions that:
The Iraqis would not vote (liberals were wrong)
The Shia,Sunni,and Kurds would never work together (liberals were wrong)
The Iraqis would not stand up and fight for themselves (liberals were wrong)
The Iraqis would not find political reconciliation (liberals were wrong)
The violence in Iraq would never go down (liberals were wrong)
The surge would not work (liberals were wrong)
The Iraqis would not stand up for themselves unless we left (liberals were wrong)
liberals pretty much need to stick to hanging out at Starbucks and making Bumper stickers,because they have
failed miserably at denying the Iraqi people their Freedom and turning Iraq over to al-qaeda and Iran by cutting and running and making idiotic "predictions".
Here's some of that PROGRESS that mud is to smart to see:
The "Surge" Strategy Has Produced Dramatic Results In Iraq
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/03/20080319-2.html
The U.S. is carrying out a new strategy in Iraq based on providing population security. In late 2006, the U.S. reviewed its strategy and gave our troops a new mission under General Petraeus’ command centered on:
Working with Iraq's security forces to protect the Iraqi people.
Pursuing the enemy in its strongholds.
Denying sanctuary to the terrorists.
The surge is working. Since all the surge forces began operating in mid-2007:
Overall violence in Iraq is significantly down.
Civilian deaths are down.
Sectarian killings are down.
Attacks on American forces are down.
Coalition forces have captured or killed thousands of extremists in Iraq, including hundreds of key al Qaeda leaders and operatives.
We have begun bringing some of our troops home as a "return on success."
More than 90,000 concerned local citizens are now helping to protect their communities from terrorists, insurgents, and extremists. The "Awakening" movement began in Anbar in 2006, when Sunni tribal leaders grew tired of al Qaeda's brutality and started a popular uprising. As this effort succeeded, it inspired other Iraqis to take up the fight.
"The surge has done more than turn the situation in Iraq around -- it has opened the door to a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror. For the terrorists, Iraq was supposed to be the place where al Qaeda rallied Arab masses to drive America out. Instead, Iraq has become the place where Arabs joined with Americans to drive al Qaeda out. In Iraq, we are witnessing the first large-scale Arab uprising against Osama bin Laden, his grim ideology, and his murderous network. And the significance of this development cannot be overstated. "
Political Progress Is Taking Place In Iraq
Millions of Iraqis have risked their lives to secure a democratic future for their nation, and America will not abandon them in their time of need. The vast majority of Iraq's citizens want to live in peace, and they are showing their courage every day.
In October 2005, Iraqi voters approved a new permanent constitution.
In December 2005, nearly 12 million Iraqis braved car bombers and assassins to choose a permanent government in free elections under the new constitution.
On February 3, 2008, Iraq's Presidency Council issued the Accountability and Justice Law, which will allow thousands of former Ba’athists to return to government jobs.
On February 13, 2008, the Council of Representatives passed two key pieces of legislation.
Amnesty Law:
The Government of Iraq’s General Amnesty Law represents a benchmark in facilitating political reconciliation and the rule of law in Iraq. The General Amnesty Law addresses the scope of eligibility for amnesty for Iraqis in Iraqi detention facilities, whether they have been brought to trial or not. The law exempts from this amnesty those who have committed specific serious crimes, such as premeditated murder or kidnapping, and those who are subject to the death penalty.
Fiscal Budget:
The $48 billion Iraqi budget represents a 17 percent increase in spending over last year's budget, with a 23 percent increase in security expenditures. Capital funds allocated to the 15 provinces will increase over 50 percent, from $2.1 billion to $3.3 billion, reflecting the improved budget execution performance by provinces in 2007.
The Iraqi government passed a pension law in late 2007.
The central government of Iraq continues to distribute oil revenue to provinces, even though the proposed oil law is still being negotiated.
The central government of Iraq reached its 2007 target of $30.2 billion in budget revenue one month before the end of the year.
The Government of Iraq recently completed early repayment of its outstanding obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reached a new Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF.
Iraq's presidential council signed off Wednesday on a measure paving the way for provincial elections by the fall, a major step toward easing sectarian rifts as the nation marks the fifth anniversary of the war.
Apparently mud needs to look up what "quagmire" means,because it does not apply to Iraq.
The Basra operation has turned out to be one of the best things the Maliki gov't could have done. Lets see the sunni insurgency has been partnered with, Al Qaeda reduced but still blowing up funerals to save Islam, and now the Sadr movement hemmed in. Sadr is defeated yet, but I think he will be in the next couple months. If those three groups are defused, and in the case of Al Qaeda destroyed, that leaves the criminal element as the last great threat to the Iraqi people. Considering what has been thrown against them I suspect the Iraqi's can handle it.
True dat, robert. Just a couple weeks ago anti-war proponents were pointing to the violence of Basra as proof the war was lost and Iraq in digression. In reality, those pessimsts don't see anything good in Iraq and don't have the faculties to understand the ebb and flow of war, not to mention the significance of Iraq to handle its own uprising. Maliki handled himself well and Iraqis can be proud of him as their PM, and more Iraqis are swearing their alligance to the government over whatever goal they hoped to achieve through violence. It's really quite remarkable.
Baxter, if you think being in-concise, and verbose, proves your point, you are wrong: loud, confident and wrong. And your sourcing, what little sourcing you have, is very poor.
RV - your words are about to come back and bite you in the you know what.
amy p,
A good breakdown on the war in Iraq was done by the military historian John Keegan last year. Basicaly he outlined the war as one between the forces of government and non-government. Lets be frank, some of the shia militias and sunni insurgents who represented anti government forces infiltrated the very government we have helped build up. Over time we and the Iraqi's have managed to get many maybe most of them out. Even more amazing would be the central anti-government forces in the sunni insurgency have now teamed up with us due to the genocidal tactics of Al Qaeda. Maliki's attempt to destroy the Sadr movment does have the ability to line up almost every major force in Iraq besides Al Qaeda with US policy.
Mud, lets see.
MUDKITTY,
baxter is not here to do your homework for you (as you say) he gave plenty of source material to do your own homework.
Source material? I think not. Just because it's a long post, doesn't mean it's well sourced.
The only error that Baxter made was in saying that Iraq was not a quagmire. But the point is: for who? Not the U.S.!
AQ went all-in -- and lost. Iran is doing the same, and the result will be the same.
Ah, well said, Brian. Well said!